I dont want to be guilty of self-promotion, but I recently published a. 2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread From the United States to Canada and over Europe, we will look at the latest Full snowfall forecasts and trends, extending the view into early Spring. One of the main points of this post is that it's difficult to rule out the role of chaotic atmospheric variability that is unrelated to the underlying sea surface temperatures when it comes to unusual Southwest U.S. precipitation. There are many patterns that influence U.S. weather, but only a few have a strong connection to slowly varying (and seasonally predictable) sea surface temperatures. Of course, as with all these predictions, they are just indications of the long-range patterns. Check out the full 2022-23 Extended Winter Weather Forecast from The Farmer's Almanac below. As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. With temperatures so warm winter and the chance of snow feel somewhat distant. Submitted by Ed Ratledge on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 13:30. This looks close to a usual historical snowfall pattern in a La Nina winter. The precipitation anomalies are divided into 10 evenly spaced bins, and the number of La Nia events is totaled for each bin. The February snow depth forecast shows the snowfall potential reducing further over most of Europe. In the January forecast, there is no real improvement. $13.99 buys a year's worth of wisdom in the palm of your hands, online community access and a 2023 Farmers' Almanac ! ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. The circulation of the strong high-pressure system promotes the development of a low-pressure region over Alaska and western Canada. Thanks for raising some good points! The February snow depth forecast shows continued increased snowfall potential over the northwestern United States and expanding over western and southern Canada. Farmers' Almanac predicts cold winter, with record-breaking temps Because the observed record is too short to tease out the relationships we seek with sufficient precision, we rely on climate models to sharpen the signal relative to the noise of random weather variability. Precipitation-wise, the period from November to January is expected to bring below-average precipitation and thus diminished early-season snow and rain chances in much of the southern half of the country, with the greatest chances of below-normal precipitation forecast from coastal South Carolina and Florida all the way to the shores of far Southern California. A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10. The data used to produce these graphics is the latest available at the present time, from mid-November. Winter Forecast 2021 - 2022 #3 - YouTube Percent of normal U.S. precipitation over the past 30 days (December 25, 2022, through January 23, 2023) after a series of weather events known as atmospheric rivers, fueled by tropical moisture, flooded the U.S. West with rain and snow. The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which increases the snowfall potential if enough moisture is available. Yes, Tucson is in the part of the Southwest where the La Nina dry signal is usually quite reliable. That storminess is not expected to slow in the eastern half of the country, with the almanac suggesting snowy conditions into the Northeast. More snowfall can be seen in parts of the Midwest and the northeastern United States. We see an increased snow potential over the upper Midwest, with some other areas across the Midwest having normal snowfall amounts forecast this month (0/white areas). With snow accumulation up to 88 inches, and entire summers with temperatures below freezing, the northern hemisphere was rattled with Satan's snow. Rains by Scott Yuknis. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS AccuWeather meteorologists break down which areas will. While December was above-average as far as the temperature goes, January was a different story. I also agree that relying on ENSO indices for a seasonal forecast is a recipe for a busted forecast, particularly IF the forecast is not interpreted correctly. That can be interpreted as a potential route of winter cold air outbreaks down from the Midwest to the south, creating occasional snow events. This way, the ENSO significantly impacts tropical rainfall and pressure patterns, strongly changing the atmosphere-ocean feedback system. NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). During the meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28) of 2022-23, average temperatures ranged from 16.7F at Medford, WI (COOP) to 25.7F at Boscobel Airport, WI (ASOS). These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. Light winds. The effects of air rising up hills and mountains must also be considered. The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Follow severe weather as it happens. However, the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for parts of Scotland, including Highlands, Eilean Siar and Strathclyde, and Northern Ireland on Friday, meaning residents should expect heavy rain and some flooding of a few homes and businesses. The February snowfall forecast indicates continued potential over the northern parts of Europe. While AccuWeather forecasts that snowfall will be suppressed, the company does not necessarily expect overall precipitation to be below normal as well, with milder temperatures leading to several all-rain events this winter. That means forecasts will bust from time to time, and success or failure must be evaluated over many forecasts. The hardworking forecasters at NOAAs Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round, said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Besides the northwestern United States and the Midwest, we can see more snowfall potential over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. Difference in DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) between the wettest 20% and driest 20% of Southwestern U.S. La Nia outcomes simulated by the GFDL SPEAR climate model. Even modest variations could tip the scale toward wetter or drier conditions in a particular winter. The problem with this approach, however, is that our record of reliable observations is just too short to slice and dice the data in this way. This is referring to the kind of divide where one half of the U.S. could be blistering cold, while the other will be so mild. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast. These represent the range of variation when the only thing were taking into account is its a La Nia winter. Then, for each of those 21 years, I looked at the range of outcomes across the 30 simulations, thus including the chaotic, unpredictable weather variability. This way, we can use these anomalies as an indicator to better understand the current state of the global climate system and its seasonal development. Winter Forecast 2022/2023 - November Update: Cold ENSO phase peaks, with its growing weather influence as we head for the start of the Winter . These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov. December is favored to be the chilliest month on the Eastern Seaboard, with lower-than-normal temperatures expected from the Great Lakes down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. We'll let you know if/when he does! The jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7mi) altitude. That total is deceptive as many areas in Tucson area had 6-7 inches today, Meanwhile Washington DC and Philadelphia have had less than 1/2 inch snow this winter, Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 16:22. Who we are, what we do and organisational news. This is a region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes between warm and cold phases. If youre struggling to identify any meaningful sea surface temperature differences in the map above, then you and I are in the same boat (5). Areas depicted in white are regions where climate signals are weak and The prevailing Northeast Monsoon typically persist s until late March 2023 in the ASEAN region . The blue bars indicate the chance of La Nia for each three-month period into winter 2022-23, according to this forecast from early May 2022. . When we divide up the observed record even further, e.g. The standard deviation of this set of values is 0.725 mm/day. Ohio Winter Forecast 2022-2023 - Earth Development The southern United States is forecast to have a drier-than-normal winter season. This is a reflection of the pressure changes in the latest model forecast. Comments must be on-topic; free of profanity, name-calling, or ad-hominem attacks; and cannot repeat misinformation about climate that has been widely debunked by authoritative sources. So, I did not see any obviously linear effect of La Nina amplitude in the observational analysis. Rain for many on Saturday but becoming warm in south-east England. There appears to be a warming trend in our Octobers over the recent years, with many of them bringing milder than average spells.. Transcript (PDF): October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Integrated Drought Information System. These variations include the magnitude and location of the strongest tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaliesa particular flavor of La Nia. Oct. 13 2022, Published 3:08 p.m. This winter it seems the temps were fairly uniform across the equator. So, next, we want to know if there are any consistent differences in the sea surface temperature pattern between La Nias that lead to wet versus dry early winters in the Southwest. Probably the coupling of weak Polar vortex with the recurrent PV stratospheric warming has something to do with the Southward (equator-wise) migration of Atmospheric wet Rivers in mid to late winter , this last point is well-documented in many physical science papers that weak polar vortex post SSW events tend to measure more equator-wise migration of the Jetstream causing these atmospheric rivers to bring wetter than normal events to California and many mediterranean-like climates in the northern hemisphere late winter. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. More early Spring snowfall is also expected over the northwestern United States and the southern half of Canada while the La Nina influence slowly lets go. Annual snowfall in the Twin Cities based on the modern 30-year average (1981-2010) is 54 inches, so AccuWeather's range falls between 40 and 67 inches. The Euro precipitation forecast outlines the major areas of concern with our snowfall outlook. We are going to show you their forecast for the upcoming winter, but first, a warning. How harsh will winter be? Six organizations issue forecasts. Fortunately, right on cue, the Farmers' Almanac has released its 2022/2023 winter weather forecast. I'm surprised that this is only the second La Nina winter with above-normal rainfall, but this document seems to support that claim (two of the "weak" episodes in the table with above-normal rainfall were not classified as La Nina by CPC). I also have noted that the tropical atmosphere has been more persistently La Nina-like than the Nino region sea surface temperatures in recent months. ENSO phases significantly influence tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. As a snow lover, I am jealous of Flagstaff residents, though I suppose many of those residents have a different perspective than I do. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. Find out in our long-range forecast for the winter season. But in general, AccuWeather is predicting a season of less snowfall on the Eastern Seaboard. It calls for snowfall to be above normal toward the East Coast as well. The Farmers Almanac predicts that across the region, March will go out like a lion, with a variety of conditions, including heavy snowfalls, heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms. By Eva Hagan. August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. Thank you for your question! WINTER SEASON 2022/2023 FIRST LOOK FORECAST - Severe Weather Europe Just wanted to Note that not all of the Southwest is receiving Robust Moisture. My question, regarding the un-forecast DEC/JAN 2022-23 is whether the heavy precipitation was contributed to by the unusual presence of warming near and east of the Dateline referred to by NOAA as "warm blob" NEP22A and NEP23A? Of course, March can still be cold and usually provides snowfall. Alongside the festive buzz and Mariah Carey's unstoppable annual return to relevance, December has decided to throw us a notably unusual weather pattern. Preparations underway for winter storm southwest 15 hours ago . No cold event has gone into the 4th year in the known records, so it is expected that we will see the last La Nina phase this season for a while. Instead, the pattern looked a bit more like the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode. Snowfall rates may reach 1"/hr at times, and travel will likely . I first averaged the 30 simulations for each of the 21 La Nia winters, giving me 21 precipitation outcomes. You will see the average snowfall forecast for the meteorological Winter season, covering the December-January-February period. How Colorado forecasts avalanche risks Farmers' Almanac predicts Michigan winter with plenty of snow, cold Here is what the Met Office is predicting for the coming weeks. Comments are placed in moderation and must be approved by a blogger before they are posted. The figure below shows that most (13 of 21) of the La Nias from 1951-2020 had below-average December-January precipitation in this region (1), although wet early winters during La Nia clearly are not that unusual. Reports from . As the monsoon rain band is situated south of the Equator, the Mekong sub-region . But take note of the trough of equal temperatures probability extending down low into the south-central states. More snowfall is still forecast in the upper Midwest, with some hints of more snowfall around the central Great Lakes. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 08:32, Tucson Intl Airport had 1.0 inches of snow today (March 2) bringing season total to 1.5 inches. As we discussed in this post, La Nina typically causes a reduction rather than increase in western U.S. atmospheric river activity. below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signal relative to the noise of random weather variability, Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano, https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. All rights reserved. Water in Rillito River east of Swan Road and clouds from a clearing winter storm around the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson on Dec. 12, 2022. We will go over the Precipitation, Temperatures, Snowfall, and our Exciting Overall Forecast! Cold ocean anomalies extend across most of the tropical Pacific. Winter 2022-23 Preliminary Forecast 5 months ago September 7, 2022 A slew of analogs is being used for the upcoming winter season. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:47. Light winds. Hopefully Nat will have a chance to turn this into a paper, but it will have to wait for a lull in his schedule. Thanks Nat for this cogent and readable discussion! How will the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption play into the forecast? Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript Heres what that means. We did have a high-amplitude MJO phase 3, which often leads to wet conditions on the West Coast. The pattern in the map is very weak, with very small departures between the two groups. When we average across all outcomes, we filter out the effects of chaotic climate variability (3). Official websites use .gov That means that this post is definitely not the last word on this topic! View the weather with our interactive map. Winter Forecast for Iowa 2022-2023: How Much Snow to Expect? Durango Herald 3:40 AM MST on Mar 4, 2023. TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) March marches in like a lion! Under this regime, some areas are likely to remain drier with some sunshine, the best of this across inland areas and in the south and west of the UK. This calm outlook could well continue, with the Met Office putting the chances of this winter being 'windy' at just 5%. Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. Here is the forecast for the coming days. We are currently in a La Nina phase, entering its third and final year, likely being replaced by a warm phase for 2023/2024. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. by Craig T, Regardless of the cause, the above normal rainfall for Tucson this winter is unusual during a LaNina event. However, December may put the brakes on this, with a strong signal for this month to be much cooler than average. The 2022-2023 winter season may have record-breaking cold temperatures of 40 degrees below zero in some places in the US! The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. Farmer's Almanac Winter 2021-2022 Predictions by Region - Martha Stewart The winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics, a weather consulting firm, should put more pep in the step of snow lovers. 8/10: A new . It's hard to say without looking at the study, but perhaps that was an analysis of observed La Nia events. The logical conclusion is that, according to the climate model, unusually heavy Southwest U.S. precipitation during December-January of La Nia has very little to do with the sea surface temperatures and instead is more closely tied to short-term and seasonally unpredictable weather conditions, as captured by the variations among the 30 simulations for a given La Nia. To analyze the effect of different sea surface temperature patterns on early-winter precipitation in the Southwest during La Nia, I first defined two groups: the wettest 20% and driest 20% of simulations. Reporting on Earths changing climate and the people trying to find solutions to one of the biggest challenges of our era. I'm pleased you're joining us today to discuss the Southwest Gas Holdings fourth quarter and year-end results. Farmers' Almanac Releases an Extreme Winter Forecast for 2022-23